Research · Best cities · 2026
The best large city for a new HVAC contractor is Menifee, CA: population up 13.4% since 2020, 45 Google reviews for the local top quarter, and 15.4 listed HVAC contractors per 100,000 residents.
Key findings
- The best large city for a new HVAC contractor is Menifee, CA: population up 13.4% since 2020, 45 Google reviews for the local top quarter, and 15.4 listed HVAC contractors per 100,000 residents.
- The rest of the top five: Fargo, ND, Rio Rancho, NM, Miami Gardens, FL and Fayetteville, AR.
- Hardest of the 315 cities ranked: St. Louis, MO (133 reviews for the top quarter), Clearwater, FL (195 reviews for the top quarter) and Birmingham, AL (109 reviews for the top quarter).
Page One Partner Research · 315 cities of 100,000+ ranked · Census population estimates (Vintage 2024) · Updated September 2026 · Methodology
Opportunity score, top 15 cities
0–100: population growth, review count needed to compete, and businesses per resident, ranked within this trade.
- Menifee, CA89.9
- Fargo, ND86.7
- Rio Rancho, NM85.5
- Miami Gardens, FL84.9
- Fayetteville, AR84.3
- Tracy, CA83.7
- Elizabeth, NJ81.6
- Jersey City, NJ80.9
- North Las Vegas, NV80.9
- Cambridge, MA80.6
- Hartford, CT79.8
- Santa Maria, CA78.8
- Clovis, CA78.6
- Ontario, CA78.6
- Sioux Falls, SD77.3
Top 15 cities for a new HVAC contractor
| City | Score | Population growth 2020–24 | Reviews for local top quarter | Listed per 100k residents | Businesses listed | Population (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Menifee, CA | 89.9 | 13.4% | 45 | 15.4 | 18 | 117,041 |
| Fargo, ND | 86.7 | 8.2% | 28 | 30.1 | 41 | 136,285 |
| Rio Rancho, NM | 85.5 | 7.7% | 54 | 9.8 | 11 | 112,524 |
| Miami Gardens, FL | 84.9 | 4.2% | 38.8 | 12.1 | 14 | 116,173 |
| Fayetteville, AR | 84.3 | 8.8% | 54 | 20.4 | 21 | 103,134 |
| Tracy, CA | 83.7 | 7% | 58 | 13 | 13 | 100,136 |
| Elizabeth, NJ | 81.6 | 2.7% | 17.5 | 24.2 | 34 | 140,413 |
| Jersey City, NJ | 80.9 | 3.7% | 43.5 | 15.9 | 48 | 302,824 |
| North Las Vegas, NV | 80.9 | 12.6% | 71.5 | 24.5 | 72 | 294,034 |
| Cambridge, MA | 80.6 | 2.5% | 33.8 | 18.2 | 22 | 121,186 |
| Hartford, CT | 79.8 | 1.4% | 14 | 17.2 | 21 | 122,129 |
| Santa Maria, CA | 78.8 | 1.4% | 11 | 21.6 | 24 | 111,346 |
| Clovis, CA | 78.6 | 6% | 66.5 | 22.7 | 29 | 127,993 |
| Ontario, CA | 78.6 | 5.4% | 34 | 35.6 | 66 | 185,285 |
| Sioux Falls, SD | 77.3 | 8.2% | 49 | 34.4 | 72 | 209,289 |
Hardest cities to break into
| City | Score | Population growth 2020–24 | Reviews for local top quarter | Listed per 100k residents | Businesses listed | Population (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis, MO | 10 | -6.9% | 132.8 | 95.5 | 267 | 279,695 |
| Clearwater, FL | 13.6 | -0.5% | 194.5 | 115.6 | 135 | 116,811 |
| Birmingham, AL | 16 | -2% | 108.8 | 119.2 | 234 | 196,357 |
| El Cajon, CA | 16 | -2.6% | 176.5 | 53.2 | 55 | 103,291 |
| Evansville, IN | 16 | -1.7% | 210.5 | 54.6 | 63 | 115,395 |
Answers
Questions about starting out as a new HVAC contractor
What is the best city for a new HVAC contractor?
Menifee, CA, by Page One Partner Research's opportunity score among 315 U.S. cities of 100,000+ residents (September 2026), followed by Fargo, ND, Rio Rancho, NM and Miami Gardens, FL.
Where is it hardest to compete as a new HVAC contractor?
Among the cities ranked, St. Louis, MO: HVAC contractors there need 133 Google reviews to reach the local top quarter (Page One Partner Research, September 2026).
Methodology
How the ranking works
Scope: every figure here describes businesses listed in the Page One Partner directory, not every business in the United States. Counts are businesses in our directory, not totals for a trade, state or city; percentages and benchmarks describe our listings and can differ from the whole market.
Source: the Page One Partner directory, 1,716,114 U.S. local service business listings (all 50 states and Washington, D.C.), each built from the business's public Google Business Profile and public business records. Listings held back by our quality checks (a phone number from another state, a map pin far from the stated city, a Google match that belonged to a different business) are excluded.
Trades: each business is filed under one trade from its Google category. Only trades with at least 1,000 listings are reported, and rating figures use trades with at least 200 businesses carrying 10 or more reviews.
Population: U.S. Census Bureau city and town population estimates (Vintage 2024, public domain). Only cities with at least 100,000 residents are ranked (321 cities), and only markets with at least 10 listed businesses in the trade (9,666 city-and-trade markets).
Opportunity score (0–100): the average of three percentile ranks among the ranked cities for that trade: population growth from 2020 to 2024 (faster = higher), the Google review count needed to reach the local top quarter (lower = higher), and listed businesses per 100,000 residents (fewer = higher). Equal weights; no demand, price or licensing data.
Coverage: listings for each trade were collected from that trade's 400 largest U.S. cities, so coverage is thorough in those cities and partial elsewhere. Every city in this ranking has 100,000+ residents, which places it inside those markets.
Important limit: a business's city is its postal city, which can cover more ground than the city limits the Census counts (many unincorporated addresses use the name of a nearby city). Cities whose postal name covers a wide area look more crowded per resident than they are, and their suburbs look less crowded. Treat the per-resident figure as indicative and read the review bar and growth alongside it.
Figures are aggregates. Page One Partner does not publish business-level rows from this research. The aggregate tables are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: credit "Page One Partner Research" with a link to the study.
Recomputed weekly from the live directory; this edition was computed in September 2026. Small shifts between editions are expected as businesses are added and ratings change.